INDIA: Where opportunity lies in demography

Aakash Singh Sajwan writes: India has strength of human resources i.e. quantity but guaranteeing quality of human resources is the real challenge. We have to build our youth for the future because we cannot always build the future for our youth.

Amidst of China- Taiwan, Russia- Ukraine tensions and perturbed economies in its front-yard. India is celebrating its 76th Independence Day.

Showcasing India from the TRP seeking media’s perspective is not my cup of tea. Rather, maintaining the auspiciousness of 15th August, I want to bring your focus on the opportunities 21st century India can avail from.

Golden asset for India has and always been it’s geography and demography. And as is said by Abraham Verghese ‘Geography is destiny’ and it surely gives upper-hand to a country but it is wrong to state only Geography gives you advantage over others, because if it was true then Israel would have been Venezuela and Venezuela would have been Israel. Demography is the other key aspect of a country which decides it’s future. Thus, it is very important to know the potential of our demography. And for this I will be comparing India with the global giant China.

In “Youthful Asia Report” published by Natixis based on UN population statistics, talking about working age group i.e. between 15 to 64 years old population, in 2020 India had 928.3million working age people and China on the other hand had 1 billion working age population. But this report suggests that in 2040 the data will not be at par as it was in 2020, in 2040 India will have 1.09billion working age population , while China will shrink to 989million. That means, stats will change in favour of India in 2040, when India’s working age will rise to 109 crore leaving behind China at 98.9 crore.

This can be boom and bane at the same time. We may be having such humongous population of working age but the question that really concerns me is that whether this population efficient enough? Because according to UNESCO, in parameter of literacy rate, India has literacy rate of 74% comparing to China where it is 97%. India has subpar performance in this, subpar compared to even Bangladesh where literacy rate is 75%. And this has in turn domino effect in our labour force participation and also in various forms of sectors as well. In Labour force participation out of the 92.8 crores( working age population) only 49% is contributing in India compared to 68% of 100crore( working age population) in China. And this data further decodes, out of 100 literate people in India 51 people aren’t even looking for work, making India’s labour force participation to be the lowest among the major countries in Asia.

From 2020- 2040 it is estimated that India would be adding 162million more people to the working age group making it to be the highest in Indian subcontinent. On the other hand, China’s work force will reduce by 11.4 crore by 2040. A petara of opportunities is on the way, India has a chance to prevent demographic dividend from becoming demographic bomb.

India has strength of human resources i.e. quantity but guaranteeing quality human resources is the real challenge. We have to build our youth for the future because we cannot always build the future for our youth. India will have to nurture the qualities in its demography through revolutionising education structure where emphasis should be given more on the subjects in demand in market and with academics incorporating skill based learnings as well. Also India has to resolve the companies act issue for enticing the FDIs by passing the bill pending in parliament with slight amendments so that it won’t kill the rights of the employers.

India knows that the possible segments in which it can grow are high tech and labour intensive. And India is working to grasp this opportunity because many South Asian giants too are eagerly waiting to grasp the opportunity this 21st century is unveiling in the midst of geopolitical tussles.