If Doomsday prediction was true

 So finally I have decided to give you the “Do you know series” today.

(1) Do you know? Pakistan imports estimated to be $242.68 ml in 2020 from India according to United Nations COMTRADE data based on international trade. And subsequently, for better trade Pakistan lifted its ban on Indian imports in 2018-19.

(2) Do you know? The Kalashnikov series Ak-203 which will be replacing INSAS is Indo-Russian venture and will be made in India at Korwa, Amethi.

(3) Do you know? Your Apple iphone is an American based company but it is not made in America, but by a company called Foxconn, and most are assembled in Shenzen, China.

(4) Do you know? Last year about 1.89ml tonnes of sunflower-cooking oil was imported and 74% came from Ukraine.

(5) Do you know? Recently, CEPA (Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement) has been signed between India-UAE.

  You must be thinking Aakash has gone mad and why is he sounding like Diljit Dosanjh of Do You Know?

 But I will be connecting these jumbled dots in a while, and you won’t be taunting me then.

“We are happy that we survived 21st attempt of invasion.”

  – Igor Polikha, Ukraine’s Ambassador to India

Although Dr. Igor mocked the 16th February’s Doomsday Prediction, i.e. Russia’s invasion on Ukraine, he was too early to neglect the threat of Russian invasion. Lately, OSCE ( Organization for security and Cooperation in Europe) reported nearly 2,000 ceasefire violations violating Minsk Accord 2014.

Kindergarten shelling incident in Eastern Ukraine showed that the threat is not over yet.

 According to a survey conducted by the Center For Insights, about 71% Ukrainians believe that their country is at war.

Although the possibility of war cannot be neglected, this all seems to be a part of psychological pressure tactics by a country (Russia), who has Double Doctorate in the technique of Brinksmanship.

 I am not in the favor of war, but what if the doomsday prediction comes true? What if Russia invades Ukraine? What if the war breaks out?

 The gravity of the questions stated above can be felt by the statements made by many prominent defense experts and strategists claiming that this invasion could instigate WWIII. There would be great implications all over the world, and definitely on India too.

I will focus more on its implications on India for 2 reasons. First, while NATO is talking about imposing sanctions on Russia, many European countries like Germany are not actively supporting their allies because of their interests in NORD stream. Secondly, although theoretically it is Ukraine v/s Russia, practically it has become NATO v/s Russia or US v/s Russia rather.

But, regarding India, if war breaks out, the implications would be more certain because of the muscle flexing Wolf Warrior (China) on the East and Bonsai Democracy (Pakistan) on the West.

You must be aware of the 1962 Indo- China war. It is the same time when Cuban Missile Crisis in 1962 took place. It’s not a mere coincidence as many of you would think. But it has always been the strategy of the Dragon that when whole world is busy elsewhere, and no one’s watching, it instigates its pet project of perturbing the neighbors in accordance of its expansionist policy.

 The same threat persists today, because if Russia invades Ukraine, USA and West would be busy in Europe, then who will be there to safeguard peace in Indian subcontinent.

 And my friends, it is not the Mao’s China we are talking about, a China when Mao used to wait in Moscow for weeks to meet Stalin. This is Xi’s China where Putin is invited in Beijing and both leaders share the same stage.

 China-Russia Trade in FY 2021 was $146.88bl. Today Russia desperately needs China and vice-versa.

Russia needs China to help its economy float in the era of CAATSA and NATO sanctions. And on the other hand, China needs Russia in the era of QUAD, ASEAN, AUKUS, which are working against the interests of China. China has more enemies then friends, then be it Australia clamoring ‘Manchurian puppets’ or the South East Asian countries rebelling against China’s dominance in South China Sea.

So, Xi needs a Pacific ally and who better than Putin, having the mighty ‘Russian pacific clout’.

And on the top of it, Imran’s Khan upcoming trip to Moscow, the first by a Pakistan PM in over two decades, shows the three-way partnership between China, Russia and Pakistan is deepening. Indian sentiment of Russia clearly isn’t shared in Moscow these days. And worldwide this trio is seen as ‘Asian Anti- Quad’.

These new geopolitical movements are making New Delhi go into a tizzy.

Now, it’s time to connect the dots of ‘Do you know series’. In the era of globalization, when India is dependent on various countries, be it its allies or rivals, a rocket fired in Yemen will end up skyrocketing the prices at gas stations in India. Russian tanks rolling into the Ukrainian territory could impact kitchens in India. Moreover, India uttering a single word against US or Russia could impact its economy exponentially.

Now talking about how India should deal with this Catch-22 situation, to whether take side of US or Russia is a very difficult question.

 Russia makes up around 50% of India’s arms imports. India needs Russia for joint venture projects like BRAHMOS, building AK-203. So abandoning Russia is not an option. At the same time siding with Russia could mean American sanctions like CAATSA.

For India, this crisis is a political test, a stern one, but familiar too. Familiar because this standoff at Ukraine-Russia border has the echoes from the cold war in 20th century. Back then India had the categorical strategy and it was Non Alignment. In past too, Washington and Moscow kept clashing but New Delhi never picked the side.

Thus, in 2014 when Russian troops moved in and occupied Crimea and the West passed a resolution against Moscow in UNSC, India abstained it’s vote.

  “I don’t think the situation in the Indo-Pacific and Trans-Atlantic are really analogous. And the trade-off of one country does something for you and you do something for them. It’s not how international relations work.”

These statements made by MEA Mr. S. Jaishankar at Munich Security Conference last week dismissing the notion that the Quad is an Asian-NATO showcased India’s neutral attitude walking on the Ukraine’s tightrope.

India’s delicate diplomatic dance is working in this precarious time too, and it is suggesting the use of talks to de-escalate the tensions.

 India has to showcase its ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’ legacy because the China-US equation is zero-sum for India. Anything that diminishes the US, strengthens China and vice-versa. Russian interests are thus directly contradictory to that of India because the weakening of American power that Russia desires will strengthen China, much to India’s detriment.

I know several wheels of time have turned full circle and have stopped where it does not suit India at all right now. But the good thing about wheels is, that they keep turning, and don’t go stationary.